Former England star Dominic Cork has talked up the hosts' chances of regaining the Ashes, which start in Cardiff on July 8.
Cork said the first game could decide the series, with the winners gathering valuable momentum going into the rest of the series.
Speaking in an Ashes preview podcast with Alan Brazil, Cork - who played 37 tests between 1996 and 2002 - said the outcome of the test match at The SSE SWALEC would be crucial.
He said: I think the way England are heading will give them a chance in the Ashes. Australia will be favourites but I think England will win a test.
After what happened last time at Cardiff [in 2009], with Jimmy Anderson and Monty Panesar blocking out [or a draw], it was a great way of starting a test series. Even though it was a draw, it felt like a win.
And whoever takes the momentum out of that first test match, will win the series.
Cork also said the momentum gathered by spectacular performances in the ODI series with New Zealand and the exciting talents of Mark Wood and Adil Rashid could spur on England for Ashes success this summer.
He said: Mark Wood could upset the Australians. he's got pace, he's explosive, he can hit people and he can swing the ball.
And despite England showing faith with Moeen Ali, preferring the Worcestershire all-rounder to Yorkshire man Rashid in the pre-Ashes training camp, Cork urged the selectors to be bold.
I would play Rashid. He brings something that Shane Warne had - an ability to spin the ball both ways and bamboozle the opposition. He will conceded a lot of runs but he's got something special.
Moeen Ali is a batsman who bowls. Rashid is a proper bowler but he is not consistent enough [yet].
With Australia coming off the back of a convincing 2-0 series win in the West Indies and a new-look England regrouping well after a disastrous World Cup campaign, Cork believes this series will be a close affair.
Cork added: I just can't wait to watch it. For some reason this feels like the right time to take on Australia, England are getting themselves into a good position.
The former England man even made a prediction; responding to those down under preparing for a whitewash similar to the one England suffered last time the teams met down under in 2013/14.
It will not be 5-0 to Australia, he said. But even if England go 1-0 they [should] not panic [and] realise that Australia are not infallible.
Tickets for Day 5 of the Ashes test and the iT20 versus Australia are still available
https://www.glamorgancricket.com/tickets/index.php#.VYQs2Kb1fZs